Weekend Rant: Diesel Isn't Going to Happen
So we’re going to have car companies needing their average fleet mileage to be over 35 mpg by 2016. That’ll mean less weight, cleaner tailpipes, and higher costs. Funny, I see the same thing happening at my local massage parlor. Who’d think?
As this is happening, the price for gasoline has jumped. Here in sunny California, the land of class and wisdom, the price has been in the area of $2.80 for regular petrol. Diesel, however, has managed to become cheaper. This flux in pricing has given rabid diesel fans another bit of wind to break.
What diesel nuts forget is that diesel has typically been more expensive than premium petrol. When oil made its last big spike, gas prices hit as high as $4.60 per gallon. Astonishingly, diesel reached more than a dollar over. Promising Honda, Nissan, and Subaru plans to bring diesel engines over to the States were either shelved or trimmed. When gas prices dropped steadily, diesel’s fall came at a trickle–putting a final nail in the diesel coffin.
Coffin is the wrong word; diesel has never been dead with the American driver. There remains a small and vocal group with a love for the mechanically efficient diesel engine. Diesel engines produce a high amount of torque, have a long service life, and are as much as 30% less consumptive than a comparable petrol motor. We’ve seen these benefits in diesel from Le Mans to Nürburg. Audi racing teams, now living off the R10 TDi, have been able to dominate their LMP class, in part to fewer pit-stops. Diesels make up a small majority in a number of major European markets. We all know that Europeans are superior in every way to us Yanks.
But Americans have failed to embrace the diesel engine. Besides the cost and limited availability of fuel, the diesel engine suffers from a dirty stigma going back to the 1980s. Filthy engine bays, strange odors, and waves of nitrogen oxide (a direct contributor to smog) ruined the engine’s rep. Bless the Oldsmobile for doing that.
The diesel engine of today is a much better unit. Not only has it become cleaner, but the uncomfortable imbalance of low-horsepower and high-torque has been resolved. Diesel engine emissions are kept to a minimum, while performance has improved. Yet the diesel has still failed to overcome prejudice. VW may have a cute black Bug boasting of a diesel Jetta making record mileage, but the truth is that drivers will be lucky to average 40 mpg. Realistically, you’re likely to be stuck in the 35 mpg range–or about 15 mpg less than the 2010 Prius average.
Like a burger at Del Taco, just because it’s not top-of-the-line, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider it. The reason you shouldn’t
consider a diesel Jetta is because it is still a Jetta–the quintessential chick’s car. In the car’s defense, the mileage is exceptional and the added torque makes it a lot more fun than a Prius or an Insight.
Let’s just face the fact: diesel is a niche. Even if you were to get diesel’s share of the market from 5% to 15%, that would be tripling demand of the passenger side of the market. Diesel, even with its easy refinement and mostly commercial use, still runs more that the cost of gasoline. Having a large sale of diesel vehicles would logically lead to a large jump in demand, thus rocketing the price at the pump–and the cost of goods and services, since most commercial delivery and transportation vehicles operate on diesel. On top of that, getting a diesel engine to be fifty-state legal requires thousands of dollars’ worth of modifications.
Diesel: it’s just not gonna happen. Let me make something clear: I would take a BMW 535d over a Lexus GS450h any day of the week; on that note, I’d take an Audi A3 Quattro TDi over anything this side of the pond. Now I’ve been drinking too much and have to get to the can.
Damn Georgio and his flamboyant parties.
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2 Comments
Hey Andy,
You are all over the map. One historical correction, though. Other than the past couple years, diesel has always been cheaper than regular gasoline, not more expensive.
Yes, diesel is a niche (except, of course, in Europe, where it dominates new vehicle sales), but so are hybrids. We may end up with a market of niches, much as has happened in the car market in general.
Finally, your comment about VW’s new diesel not being able to hit 40 mpg?!? WTF, that’s just the opposite of what I hear out there. Whereas hybrids are hyper sensitive to driving style and punish your mpg if you don’t follow the style of driving needed to produce anything close to EPA numbers (which were dropped last year because they were so far off real world ones), diesels can be driven pretty much any way you’d like and still deliver top mpg, because it comes from a more energy dense fuel and more efficient engine.
My 2 cents.
Michael
Michael,
Road and Track magazine had an average of 35 mpg with its ’09 Jetta TDi, Motor Trend had 35.5, and Car and Driver managed just 33.
The Energy Information Administration survey indicates the national annual average of diesel versus retail gasoline has been higher going back to the early 1990s. The gap was minute, but has steadily risen since then. Diesel has often reached lower retail cost than petrol in select regions due to favorable distribution and seasonal variation.
My expressed opinion is as accurate as it could be. I stated my fondness for the engine, its mechanical advantages, and its dominance in much of Europe. But my support for the engine is tempered by the current state of diesel fuel in its limited availability and the current demand. When one considers the present cost of diesel with just a twentieth of passenger cars sold operating on it, it should come with no astonishment that the price would soar upon heightened demand.
On your remark about hybrids, I have to disagree. Initial hybrids like the first-generation Prius and Honda Accord were unimpressive in their combined averages. But careful engineering in purpose-built hybrids, like the current Prius and Insight, have permitted real-world averages to be high. The ’05 Prius averaged around 44 mpg in aggressive testing from Consumer Reports and similar figures from motoring publications. The present Insight and updated Prius achieve 40 and 50 mpg, respectively.
Again, I prefer the diesel over the hybrid–I just don’t believe it’s the fuel of the future. I also feel the same way about petrol. They’ re both fossil fuels and available in finite quantities.